Electricity consumption is the "barometer" of economic operation. The data released by the National Energy Bureau on the 15 day showed that in the first half of this year, the total amount of electricity consumption in the whole country was 26276 billion kwh, up 5.3% over the same period. What trends and characteristics of economic operation are reflected by electricity consumption data?
The growth rate of 5.3% of electricity consumption in the first half of the year was slightly higher than that of 5.1% in the same period last year. But Lin Boqiang, director of China Energy Economics Research Center, Xiamen University, thinks that electricity consumption in China is at the same time with economic growth. The electricity consumption in the first half of the year is lower than the annual GDP growth target, indicating that the economy is still facing downward pressure.
From a more short-term trend of monthly data, this year, after a small fluctuation in the first quarter, the total energy consumption of the whole society began to rise steadily from April. The rate of electricity consumption in the two quarter was 4.6%, 5.3% and 5.9% in three months.
The moderate recovery of electricity consumption reflects the warming of China's economy, which is also consistent with the related indicators and data disclosed in the near future. China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index recently released June (PMI) was 51%, picked up 4 consecutive months. As a leading indicator of macroeconomic, PMI continuous in the ups and downs of the line above the display, the economy has gradually stabilized.
Since April, China has launched a series of "micro stimulus" policies, including promoting the construction of shantytowns, railway infrastructure and other major projects, expanding the implementation scope of preferential policies for small and micro businesses, and reducing the deposit reserve ratio of commercial banks. In the policy heaters, signs of short-term economic stabilization previews, this has to a certain extent, stimulate the whole society consumption modestly.
In addition to speed up, the energy consumption in the first half of the year also showed structural optimization. Data show that in the first half of the year, the electricity consumption of the first industry dropped 4.6% compared to the same period last year, the electricity consumption of the second industry increased by 5.1% compared with the same period last year, the electricity consumption of the third industry increased by 6.9% compared to the same period last year, and the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents increased by 6.6% compared to the same period last year. Among them, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the third industry and residents was slightly higher than in the previous May.
Lin Boqiang believes that the heavy rainfall this year, the impact of this, the first industry growth rate of electricity consumption decline. The growth of electricity consumption and the third industry was rising, indicating that the economic structure was further adjusted. But he also said that China is currently in the process of urbanization and industrialization, and the change of electricity consumption structure is still slightly slower, and economic restructuring is still a long way to go.
At present, China's industrial electricity consumption accounts for 70% of the total social electricity consumption. Among them, electricity consumption accounts for about half of the total electricity consumption of steel, cement, petrochemical and other high energy consuming industries, and the fluctuation of electricity consumption is closely related to the production situation of these industries.
Ouyang Changyu, Deputy Secretary General of China Electric Power Enterprise Association, said that since last year, China's energy conservation and emission reduction efforts, air pollution control and some high-energy industries have been implemented. In the future, China's electricity growth will continue to be in the shift period, and the consumption structure will continue to optimize the adjustment situation. The third industry and residential electricity will continue to maintain a high level. The proportion of electricity consumption will continue to improve. The second industry electricity consumption will continue to slow down, and the proportion of electricity consumption will continue to decline.
Economic Forecast Department of the state information center director of macroeconomic Niu Li said, from the current point of view, China's economy in the two quarter of stabilization, the second half may be slightly improved, through a series of policies and measures to reform, is expected to complete the annual target.
According to the analysis, the electricity consumption in the second half of the year will maintain a moderate recovery in the second half of the year. The China Federation of electric power enterprises has also predicted that the total energy consumption of the society will increase by about 7% this year.
Information source: People's network
